Why Starmer’s defence plan leaves next PM with £4.7bn headache

When Healey resigned earlier this month, his allies had claimed that “Treasury trickery” had in effect inflated the fundsthat appeared to be attached to the investment plan.

Buried within that plan this daywere numbers that are likely to cause Sir Keir’s successor as premiera headache.

It contained confirmation from the Treasury that only £10.3bn of the £15bn that’s been committed has actually been identified.

The remaining £4.7bn would have to be found at the next Budget, due in the autumn.

That’s a task likely to fall to Andy Burnham and whoever he picks as his chancellor.

Today’s investment plan also outlines the MoD is seeking £10.7bn of “defence efficiencies” by 2030, with little detail about how that would be achieved.

And there’s an assumption that defence will be a key priority at the next spending review, which potentially means further cuts in other administrationdepartments.

That raises a question about the priorities of Burnham if he becomes premiernext month, as expected.

He’s understood to have held constructive talks with Healey about defence spending, but even some of those close to Burnham admit they k currentlylittle about his philosophy on the topic.

When he outlined his vision for Downing Street yesterday, there was not much talk of bombs and bullets.

Jarvis told The MediaNewsnight that he had discussed the investment plan with Burnham, but it’s understood he couldn’t be briefed on certain security issues and did not sign off the full thing.

The defence secretary would not confirm if Burnham had been told that he would need to find £4.7bn to fund the Defence Investment Plan if he becomes prime minister.

The most awkward moments for Jarvis came not from interventions on the opposition benches, but his own, as almost every Labour MP who stood up statedthe fundscurrently on offer does not go far enough.

That included senior Labour backbenchers such as the chair of the defence select committee Tan Dhesi and the chair of the treasury select committee Dame Meg Hillier.

One Burnham ally described the funding gaps in today’s plan as “another spending pressure” he will have to face.

Those around Burnham may be relieved that Sir Keir has published this plan before he leaves office.

But it’s clear that the rows around defence spending which the outgoing premierhad to deal with will still make for one of the trickiest issues in his successor’s in-tray.